It’s been about three years since Supervisor Cathy Hudgins announced that she was about to increase zoning density allowable for Reston, from 13 to 16 persons per acre in the area of Reston zoned PRC (Planned Residential Community). She stressed the urgency of executing the change by mid-2016.
Fast forward to today, Jan. 21, 2019. The density cap remains at 13. Life as we know it has not ended in spite of the dire warning. In fact, Reston today has achieved just over 12 persons per acre in the PRC which includes nearly all of Reston not in the Transit Station Areas, plus most of Town Center. This highlights the dubiousness of the urgency of increasing the zoning.
What effect would increasing the zoning cap to County staff’s newly proposed 15/acre have on Reston’s population? According to (IMHO) the community’s best analyst, Terry Maynard of Reston 2020, if the County’s Comprehensive Plan for Reston were to achieve its maximum allowable potential by 2050 our population would increase from its current estimated 60,352 (2017) to 186,703! That is: to the current population, add 103,488 in the TSAs, plus 44,577 in the PRC, minus 21,714 overlap of TSA and PRC and you get a total potential added population of 126,351. 60,352 plus 126,351 equals 186,703.
After three years of back and forthing, all Fairfax County planners can say about Reston 2020s thoughtful estimate is that it is unlikely developers/landowners will achieve the maximums allowable on every site and, hence, 2020s numbers are too high. To date they are unable (unwilling?) to offer a projection of their own.
The time between Ms. Hudgins announcement of the planned change and now have been filled with a few heated public meetings, including perhaps the largest ever in Reston when 900 residents attended a session filled with nearly unanimous angry opposition, periods of stony silence by the County, and a promising civil dialogue last summer between County planners, RA leaders and a newborn Coalition for a Planned Reston. Sadly, after the dialogue, the parties were unable to produce any compromise to go forward. Squabbling resumed.
The end is near. This Wednesday, Jan. 23 at 7 p.m., the County Planning Commission will hold its decision hearing on raising the zoning cap to 15. This is virtually the last opportunity for the community to speak out before the Board of Supervisors likely approves a change that is still not urgent and puts us on a path to 186,000 for our unincorporated Fairfax County fiefdom. In my view, the community should show up en masse to oppose the zoning cap change, and to demand a review of the Comprehensive Plan for Reston in order to establish a firm ceiling on population growth allowable under an amended Plan.
On March 5 at 4:30 p.m., the Board of Supervisors will make the final decision to adopt, or not adopt, the new zoning cap. Regardless of what comes out of the Jan. 23 Planning Commission hearing, the community should be present at the March 5 meeting to press the pols to stay on the right track.
Let’s remember this is an election year for County Supervisors. I’m thinking that a litmus test for all candidates for Supervisor Hudgins’ job would include their opposing the incumbent’s zoning cap proposal. In fact, we should give bonus points to candidates for the Hunter Mill District seat who stand up and testify with us at the Jan. 23 and March 5 meetings.