Redevelopment of Landmark Mall and the immediate surrounding area appear destined to remain as they are for the immediate future. That was the conclusion of Economic Research Associates (ERA) during a work session on the Landmark/Van Dorn Area Plan preceding the January 4 Planning Commission meeting.
"The redevelopment opportunities don't appear strong enough at the moment to proceed," said Brian Sands, senior associate, ERA of Washington, DC., consultants to Alexandria Planning & Zoning Department.
It was also forecast that this area of Alexandria's West End could see an increase of 5,000 resident over the next 25 years. A split of 85 percent market rate and 15 percent affordable housing is the target residential ratio, according to Rich Josephson, acting director, Alexandria Planning & Zoning Department.
"This area of the city already provides a fair number of affordable housing units. But, we want to increase that number," Josephson said.
However, to make redevelopment appealing and more profitable to mainstream developers the consultants proposed an increase in density. "Developers normally look for a profit margin of approximately 20 percent," Sands said.
Planning principles guiding the Area Plan include:
o Develop Landmark/Van Dorn as a community of neighborhoods, with a pedestrian environment and a sense of place.
o Provide a mixed-use urban center and place of coming together for residents and visitors.
oOffer a choice of transportation modes.
oProvide an interconnected open space system.
oCreate an attractive gateway to Alexandria.
Other factors forecast in the Area Plan by the department include:
oResidential units in the area will rise from 2,547 in 2005 to 8,200 in 2030.
oNonresidential development in terms of square feet will increase from 2 million in 2005 to 3,500,000 by 2030.
oJobs in the area will increase from its present 8,000 plus to approximately 12,500 by 2030.
Based on an array of factors ranging from housing types, to transportation, to open space and housing characteristics, ERA came to the following conclusions:
oRedevelopment by current owners or potential developers is unlikely in the short-term due to market conditions.
oTownhouses present the best opportunity for inclusion of affordable housing, particularly at proposed higher floor area ratios. However, they yield fewer overall units.
oCondos also offer a good opportunity for affordable housing.
oMixed use development may be feasible for some developers depending on the floor area ratios being proposed.
oApartments are not appealing to developers under current market conditions.
The bottom line according to ERA's analysis is that the Landmark/Van Dorn Area is on hold and will remain so for the near term.