Dulles South residents should be prepared for more residential construction in the coming months and years, as few of the area’s major neighborhoods are even close to completion, according to the 2006 growth summary report generated by the Department of Economic Development earlier this month.
While growth in all the areas of Dulles South have slowed since 2005, with the number of building permits issued dropping by more than 500 to 1,031 permits in 2006, residential construction is not ending.
"Loudoun’s had the fastest growth in the metro area," Jill Allmon, the county’s demographer, said. "But even in this downturn it’s still on top."
ACCORDING TO THE growth summary, Brambleton, which is scheduled to build out at 6,240 residential units, was only 31 percent complete, or 1,931 units, by Jan. 1 of this year. Broadlands was 81 percent complete at the beginning of 2007 with 3,270 of its 4,017 approved units constructed. While the Katama Woods section of South Riding is 98 percent built out at 5,469 units, the South Riding Station portion is 2 percent built with 605 units left to be built. In Stone Ridge, 40 percent of the 3,265 approved residential units were constructed at the beginning of the year.
WHILE THE REAL estate market continues to be on a down swing, the 20148 ZIP code, which includes Brambleton and Broadlands and the 20152 ZIP code, which includes South Riding, saw an upturn in the last year in the average home price.
"The 20148 ZIP code was up 3.5 percent between July 2006 and July 2007," Jill Landsman, from the Northern Virginia Realtors Association, said, "20152 was up 4.98 percent during the same time. That’s a good thing to see."
Landsman said that the average home in those areas stayed on the market for 84 days, just under three months.
"That’s not terrible, considering," Landsman said.
Landsman was hesitant to generalize about the trends of the market, however, saying that there is a market correction going on.
Jamie Munizza, a real estate agent who has worked in Loudoun for more than five years, said it is typical for the numbers to go up and down in any given year.
"When you see the numbers go up, that’s tremendous," she said, "but part of that could just be cyclical. The natural ebb and flow of the market."
MUNIZZA SAID IT is the new homes such as the ones in the large Dulles South communities that are selling faster than homes in older neighborhoods.
"We’re losing 25 percent of sales to new homes," she said. "In those neighborhoods you have a lot of new houses."
In addition, Munizza said, the builders of the area’s newest neighborhoods also pay close attention to the cyclical nature of the real estate market, often reacting to it much faster than the average home seller.
"They pay attention to their numbers and if they see they are not selling, they have the ability to lower their prices or they can offer something for free, such as a basement or a sun room. So they tend to sell more."
Ultimately, it is the real estate market that drives the residential development in any given area, Allmon said.
"The construction all depends on market conditions," she said.
With the strength and growth of Loudoun’s job market and the increase in commercial development, both Landsman and Munizza said they hope that the real estate market continues its upward trend.
"Have we hit bottom?" she said. "We tend to think so because the local economy is so strong."