Show me the data.
Mount Vernon District Supervisor Gerry Hyland once again made this request to Leon Marshall, BRAC Implementation Leader at last week’s BRAC Public Meeting.
Comparing a bowl of Jell-O that if squeezed a little comes out on either side, Hyland said that until they know what the mix is of civilian and military and more importantly where they’re coming from or where they’ll be working, it’s hard to make any decision on transportation.
A quick list shows that they will need at least $350 million to make transportation improvements.
“Somebody has to make those improvements. It’s clear that we can’t make BRAC work unless an implementation plan is put into place,” Hyland said. “We can’t wait until the 12 of Never. The Post has been tasked to determine where the 21,000 people are coming from—it’s important to know where they’re going to go so we know where to put transportation. The Newington/Laurel Hills area is the fastest growing part of the county, even without BRAC.”
Marshall said that while they’ve been planning for this the last three years, they never expected the numbers to be so high. He said that they are working on a survey and will share the results when they receive them. He picked up on Hyland’s Jell-O comparison and said that with the new ‘Jell-O math,' the numbers of how many are coming to Fort Belvoir keep changing every day.
“When we know, the community will know,” Marshall said. “The first three issues are transportation, transportation and transportation. We’re as concerned about transportation as you are.”
Other members of the panel include Gary Chevalier, FCPS assistant superintendent; Errol Bergsagel, co-president Mount Vernon Council of Citizens Association; Jan Vaughn, VDOT, John Jennison, president, Fairfax Federation of Citizens Association; and Dan Storck, Fairfax County School Board Representative.
WHILE THE MEETING was open to the public the majority of the people who attended were members of the Mount Vernon Council of Citizens Association and the Fairfax Federation of Citizens Associations.
Mike Downie, a local Realtor asked when they actually expected people to start coming. Marshall said that seven people were coming in 2007, but that the majority of people wouldn’t arrive until 2010 or 2011.
“It sort of overwhelmed me. With the development in Laurel Hills, the new Army Museum and BRAC, it’s very scary [how many people there will be]," Downie said. "And they [the Army] haven’t even started yet. It’s been four years and they haven’t even started on Woodlawn Road yet. I see a tsunami coming at us without any guidance.”
Jeff Butchko attended the meeting because he was interested in hearing about what was going to be done about the schools. A Fort Hunt High School graduate, he had heard rumors about a new elementary school being built and just wanted to know what was going on.
While most of the meeting was dominated by discussion on transportation, the panel briefly talked about education.
Panel member Dan Storck said after the meeting that he agrees they cannot proceed without some data.
“To solve the core of school issues we need more data,” Storck said. “Depending on where people live we may not have room in our schools. Only a handful of schools have room. Tell us where they they’re going to live and we’ll tell you what kind of problem we’re going to have.
“WITHOUT DATA we cannot adequately plan and anticipate what we believe will be a major increase in population and resources needed in our district," Storck said. "We need a minimum of five years to build a new school or make significant updates. Yet they’re saying that six years from today [BRAC implantation] has to be done.”
Storck said that he and the school board are very concerned and growing frustrated by the lack of information. They need to know what the potential impact of 21,000 new employees will have on the schools and transportation network.
“We will have severe transportation problems if funds are not made available quickly and it will affect not only commuters but also children trying to get to school in a timely manner,” Stock said. “In five or six years unless something gets moving quickly now, people will be very upset with elected officials who are not able to address the impact of BRAC. Yet, as an elected official we can’t anticipate changes without high quality information. It’s critical that the Federal Government provide impact funding.”
SPEAKING FROM A LAW ENFORCEMENT perspective, Capt. Mike Kline, commander of the Mount Vernon District Station said more traffic would lead to heavier rush hours, which in turn would mean more wrecks and aggressive driving.
“We have lots of Type A personalities around here," Kline said. "Anytime you put a lot of people together who believe they are more important than the guy next to them or in front of them and they are in a car, you can get some fireworks.”