One of the more basic principles of economics is supply and demand. That same principle, in a way, governs transportation. Adding a lane to a road increases the supply side of the equation, for example. Kevin Luten of UrbanTrans works on the other end. "The world that we work in is on the demand side of the equation," Luten said.
Specifically, Luten is working on the "demand side" for the MetroWest development. He met with about 20 members of the Fairgrowth group on Thursday, May 12 at Mosby Woods Elementary, to explain his role in the process.
MetroWest is a proposed development just south of the Vienna/Fairfax Metro Station. As proposed, the development consists of about 2,250 residential units and about 400,000 square feet of retail and office space.
Fairgrowth is a citizens’ organization that has been opposed to the level of density which the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors approved last year for the development site. The group agrees that some level of density needs to exist around the station, said Will Elliott of Fairgrowth.
Pulte Homes, the builder behind MetroWest, is required to show that the residential portion of the development will generate 47 percent less car trips during rush hour than would be expected. The office component must generate 25 percent less trips.
Luten’s company is performing the study to determine if those target numbers are possible. He expects the study to be complete by mid-June. If UrbanTrans determines that the targets cannot be achieved, then the size of the project must be reduced by enough to make up the difference.
While Fairgrowth is happy that a study is being done, the group feels that it doesn’t go far enough. "From day one, we feel there hasn’t been an independent, comprehensive transportation study that has been done," said Elliott.
Fairgrowth’s members are also skeptical that the 47 percent number can be achieved and plan to examine the study closely, Elliott said.
Pulte is paying for the study, but Fairfax County chose UrbanTrans and will be overseeing the study. Elliott said his group is also pleased with that formula which, he said, avoids at least the appearance of a potential conflict of interests.
The county’s Comprehensive Plan also mandates that the development should be surveyed periodically to determine if it is continuing to meet the target numbers. While Pulte will put the programs in place initially, the responsibility will later fall to the homeowner’s associations and employers that move into MetroWest.
If the targets are not being met in the future, "additional program measures and funding will be necessary until the trip reduction targets are achieved," states the county’s Comprehensive Plan.
Currently, UrbanTrans is establishing a baseline for the number of trips that would be expected from the project. The company is using a standard based on calculations made by the Institute of Transportation of Engineers and modifying those depending on more local variables.
UrbanTrans has already counted the number of cars coming and going from subdivisions close to the Vienna/Fairfax Metro Station. It is also considering factors like how many people are in the cars and has sent out surveys to nearby residents to determine their travel patterns.
About 8,000 surveys have been sent out, Luten said, and he is hoping to get back about 1,500 in order to have enough to generate meaningful statistics. "The degree to which you can encourage people to return it would be helpful," Luten told the group.
AFTER THE baseline has been set, UrbanTrans will develop a set of techniques that the developer could use to reduce the number of car trips. These techniques, he said, can vary widely and often work in concert.
For example, providing a bike rack at the office building might encourage some people to ride a bicycle to work. But requiring the buildings to provide shower facilities for the bike riders could encourage more people to ride their bikes to work.
Parking is another major factor, Luten said. "Free parking for employees is really the biggest factor," he said. Forcing workers to pay for parking can help to encourage some of them to take Metro or carpool to work, reducing the number of trips.
On the residential side, charging for parking can also help to reduce the number of cars, and therefore trips. For example, a condo could come with a single parking spot. Additional parking would have to be purchased.
Parking, Luten said, could be one major obstacle to achieving the necessary trip reductions. "One barrier might be that there is an oversupply of parking," Luten said.
Reducing the amount of parking may be an option, said Angela Rodeheaver of the county’s Department of Transportation. "If parking is something that is needed to make this work, then it is on the table," she said.
Some things will not be included as variables in the study. For example, Luten said, that Metro’s capacity is not being included. While the company may make recommendations about how to encourage people to use Metro, they don’t calculate if those people can fit on the trains.
UrbanTrans is also not considering the implications of U.S. Rep. Tom Davis’ (R-11) efforts to block Metro’s sale of some land to the project or the impact that the development will have on local roads. These items are outside the scope of the study, Luten explained.