The red-hot housing market is not going to cool down anytime soon, despite the defeat of the sales tax referendum, housing analysts predicted last week. The continued success of the housing industry presents a marked contrast to the dire economic predictions brought on by the measure's defeat.
"It does make our area less attractive," said Jack O'Donohue, the immediate past president of the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. "People are less inclined to bring their business to this area," he added. "People usually make their decision based on the commute for the leaders of the company. It's the old quality of life issue."
BUT BUSINESS' reluctance to move to Fairfax County does not concern O'Donohue in the short term.
"I don't see tough times. Not in the immediate future," he said.
In the long term, congestion may affect the housing industry, he added. But that is probably about 10 years down the road.
"That's what we worry about," he said.
The NVAR supported the referendum because of its long-term concerns with traffic congestion.
Nevertheless, O'Donohue is not worried about housing costs going down.
"Real estate prices don't tend to go down very much," he said. "We don't really have radical declines."
In fact, the average sales price for a home in Northern Virginia in September stood at $316,695, about 10 percent higher than September last year.
"Historically people have always come here," said O'Donohue. First it was government contractors that drew them. Then it was telecommunication companies and dotcoms. Now O'Donohue said Realtors are waiting for a boom in post-Sept. 11 homeland security contractors. While that has not happened yet, O'Donohue added that he was hopeful the new Republican Congress would create a better climate for Northern Virginia defense contractors.
To accommodate the region's growth, solutions to the transportation problem are going to have to be found.
"We're going to have to work with the legislators to see what we can do next," said O'Donohue. "We don't really have a Plan B per se."
"Traffic will get a lot worse unless they look for the money somewhere else — like raise property taxes," agreed NVAR spokesperson Amy Ritsko-Warren.
Ritsko-Warren also said it is not likely the housing industry will take a hit in the short term.
"I think this area is so dynamic and growing and seems to be able to adapt to anything that happens," she said.
"There's a lot of talk about this bubble, when the bubble is going to burst and the general feeling is that it's not."
ON THE AFFORDABLE housing front, the defeat of the sales tax referendum will not have a significant impact either, according to Kristina Norvell, a spokesperson for the Fairfax County Department of Housing and Community Development.
"There is no direct impact on the provision of affordable housing of the defeat of the sales tax referendum," she said.
Nonetheless, she added that a lack of affordable housing is one of the causes of the region's traffic woes. Providing more affordable housing closer to places of work might help alleviate gridlock a little.
"There is a direct link between the lack of affordable housing in Fairfax County and transportation in the way that if there is no affordable housing in Fairfax County then people who work in Fairfax County have to move further out," Norvell said.
"The consequence of living further out is it's increasing the number of cars on the road."