The Connection

The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors recently spotlighted predictions for Fairfax County. Arlington County and City of Alexandria. The association collaborated on the consensus housing forecast with the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government to answer one question: Where is the market headed?

Fairfax County Single Family Homes: Median Sales Price; Home Sales; and Home Inventory. Actual Jan. 2011- Jul. 2021 in blue and Predicted for 2022 in orange

 

"In 2022, we expect the market to be a little slower but still fast-paced in terms of sales. Homes are going to move quickly. We're still going to see a lot of opportunities to buy, but you have to be ready for it," said NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin. He also predicted that inventory would be scarce and that home prices would rise, but more slowly.

Derrick Swaak, 2021 president of NVAR and partner/managing broker at TTR Sotheby's International Realty McLean, said they convened a panel of key experts from different industry sectors. 

McLaughlin predicted that moderation would be the theme for the 2022 market. "[It] will be a bit cooler, but it will still be a very good year for residential real estate. We do expect a slower pace in home sales as mortgage rates increase and housing options remain scarce. Although home prices will continue to rise, they will still be at a more moderate pace than in the past year." 

According to McLaughlin, since the spring of 2020, Realtors witnessed a residential real estate market that defied expectations amid a pandemic that brought the economy to a near standstill. The housing market, McLaughlin said, did more than just survive; it thrived. He attributed this to the region's built-in competitive economic advantages, including a strong technology sector and employment boosted by federal government jobs. "The influx of new jobs provided and still to come by Amazon has created a ripple effect that benefits the region," McLaughlin said.

Terry L. Clower, professor of Public Policy at George Mason University and director of GMU's Center for Regional Analysis, said median prices would rise about 5.7 percent at the national level, but they expect a drop by about 1.7 percent in the number of home sales. "What we're expecting in this region is a little bit slower price increase, and that's somewhat because our prices are already pretty high," Clower said. "We are at the top of our market," he said, particularly for entry-level purchases.”

"There's going to be heavy competition for most houses ... If you want to buy a home, you're going to have to compete for it. If you want to sell a home, you'll get everything you're asking for, particularly for a single-family." 

— Terry L. Clower, Ph.D., GMU's Center for Regional Analysis

Drop in Inventory

Clower predicted a 23 percent drop in inventory in Fairfax County. What that means, Clower said, is that in "an average month through 2022, we're expecting there to be fewer than 500 homes on the market." 

"That's a significant new number. … We're not going to see that big of a drop in sales, about 0.8 percent, and we expect to see a rise in price … in Fairfax County, 3.2 percent," Clower said. He said he expects to see an increase in the inventory of townhomes. "Now, when we say they're increasing, though that's [only] … about 300."

Clower said many believe inventory in Northern Virginia cannot fall any further, but it does. There might be some variation in the submarkets, but there would not be a lot of choices overall. 

"There's going to be heavy competition for most houses ... If you want to buy a home, you're going to have to compete for it. If you want to sell a home, you'll get everything you're asking for, particularly for a single-family," said Clower.