Several activists on both sides of the aisle have assumed this year’s race for retiring U.S. Sen. John Warner’s seat would be a match up of two former governors, Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Jim Gilmore.

But many people wore the stickers of Gilmore’s opponent for the Republican nomination, Del. Bob Marshall (R-13), while participating in the Republican’s 10th Congressional District convention at Langley High School in Fairfax County May 17. Gilmore and Marshall will face off at the Republican Party of Virginia’s state convention in Richmond May 31.

"I like Jim Gilmore but I think Bob has a better chance of winning. … He doesn’t labor under the high negative ratings that Jim Gilmore does," said Republican Dick Black, former delegate of Loudoun County.

With $1.1 million in campaign contributions, Gilmore has raised approximately 23 times more than Marshall. The former governor, having held statewide office, is also likely to have more name recognition than the state delegate.

But candidates like Marshall, who has a strong base of supporters among party conservatives, tend to fare better at conventions than in caucuses or primaries. Conventions typically draw fewer participants and a core group of backers can have greater weight, according to political scientists.

Marshall’s local supporters said his principled stances on outlawing abortion and keeping taxes low make him an attractive candidate.

Fairfax County resident Ronald Wilcox called him a "tremendous hero" for leading the legal challenge against Gov. Tim Kaine (D) and the Virginia General Assembly’s transportation plan last year. The plan called for a regional taxing authority in Northern Virginia was declared unconstitutional by the state Supreme Court earlier this year, in part as a result of action by Marshall.

"He cares more about being right than being loved," said Wilcox, who lives near Chantilly and attended the 10th Congressional District convention last weekend.

Many Marshall supporters said they were turned off by Gilmore’s stance on abortion. Gilmore has stated publicly that he does not think abortion should be legally prohibited during the first eight weeks of pregnancy.

"I don’t like Governor Gilmore’s stance on life issues. … A human being is a human being whether it is 7 weeks old or 9 weeks old," said Paul O’Brien, a Marshall supporter and McLean resident.

But most Marshall backers said they would support Gilmore in the general election if the former governor were the Republican nominee.

"We need to support the most conservative candidates. … It is not really anything against Jim Gilmore," said Wilcox.

Gilmore supporters argued the former governor has a strong record on taxes.
"He carried through on his pledge to end the car tax," said David McWaters, who served on the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors from 1996 to 2000.

Gilmore’s views may not be as absolute as Marshall’s but that is positive for McWaters.

"Jim Gilmore is more reasonable than Bob Marshall. Bob Marshall is too extreme. … I like practical politicians," he said.

Gilmore has argued on his Web site that he has strong record on abortion restriction. While governor, Gilmore supported the 24-hour waiting period for women seeking an abortion. He also banned partial-birth abortions and required parental notification for minors seeking an abortion. According to his Web site, Gilmore also considers the U.S. Supreme Court decision on Roe v. Wade "wrongly decided."

Most Marshall backers also said they would support Gilmore if he was the Republican nominee.

Despite the divide over the U.S. Senate race, both Gilmore and Marshall supporters said they would be backing incumbent U.S. Rep. Frank Wolf (R-10) in the upcoming Republican primary June 10.

"Frank Wolf is a decent guy. He keeps the spotlight on people who are suffering around the world. He has done a lot for Northern Virginia and deserves to be re-elected," said Charles King, a Loudoun County resident.

Wolf will face newcomer Vern McKinley in the Republican primary election on June 10. Though convention workers prohibited campaign signs from entering the Langley auditorium, a single large "Wolf for U.S. Congress" banner hung over the stage at the front of the room.